INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
4 problems in how customers decide to pay, worked from the mechanism up. Each one ships the model behind the conclusion, so you can change the inputs and see where it breaks.
Pricing & billing
Supabase pricing: helping customers predict what happens next
Customer engagement
Target incremental response, not customer value
Subscription payments
Route the failed payment before you contact the customer
Packaging & conversion
A free tier should surface need, not just meter use
Research reel, at your own pace
Pricing & billingHYPOTHESIS
Supabase pricing and billing. Help customers predict what happens next, with a forecast and an explicit control at the point of change. The model runs on illustrative scenario indices.
Customer engagementHYPOTHESIS
Customer engagement. Target incremental response, not customer value. The lapsed regular is often the more useful test population, and the steady regular has little reason to receive an offer. Authored hypotheses, not measured lift.
Subscription paymentsHYPOTHESIS
Subscription payments. Route the failed payment before you contact the customer, then let the customer's state decide the contact. The model has 48 inspectable scenario combinations.
Packaging & conversionHYPOTHESIS
Packaging and conversion. A free tier should surface need, not just meter use, including for a customer who uses the product rarely but faces a high-consequence moment. Authored hypotheses, not conversion forecasts.
The four briefs in 30 seconds. Each claim is labelled as a hypothesis or a cited fact.
4 briefs shown for all capabilities.
Mechanism and customer-state model
48 inspectable scenario combinations
Subscription paymentsFeatured
A routing model that separates payment mechanism from customer engagement, then tracks recovery and 30, 60, and 90-day survival.
WHAT THIS DEMONSTRATESBilling & payments · Retention · Subscriptions · Customer lifecycle
Mechanism and customer-state model48 inspectable scenario combinations
Need and limit comparison
Authored hypotheses, not conversion forecasts
Packaging & conversionFeatured
A model of where a free-tier limit appears in product use, and why usage frequency can hide the strongest need to pay.
WHAT THIS DEMONSTRATESPricing · Monetization · Subscriptions · Segmentation
Need and limit comparisonAuthored hypotheses, not conversion forecasts
Pricing structure comparison
Illustrative scenario indices
Pricing & billing
How forecasts, spend controls, and packaging can change a customer's understanding of a developer-platform bill.
WHAT THIS DEMONSTRATESPricing · Monetization · Billing & payments · Segmentation
Pricing structure comparisonIllustrative scenario indices
Treatment decision matrix
Authored hypotheses, not measured lift
Customer engagement
A decision model that separates customer value from incremental response, then defines the holdout needed to measure the difference.
WHAT THIS DEMONSTRATESSegmentation · Retention · Monetization · Experimentation
Treatment decision matrixAuthored hypotheses, not measured lift